Dr. Ibrahim's Husband's Congressional Delegation asked the State Department to Intervene

Diposting oleh giantara | 0 komentar | 21.22

Editorial Note 2/9/2015: Dr.Ibrahim, wife of an American citizen and her two children were eventually freed by Italian efforts. The American State Department proved useless. Meanwhile Christians are still being hanged and America still pays foreign aid to their persecutors. ALL OF THE CHRISTIANS OF THE SUDAN LIVE UNDER THIS SHADOW. DESPITE A SUDANESE CONSTITUTIONAL GUARANTEE OF RELIGIOUS FREEDOM THEY ARE BEING CONDEMNED TO DEATH BY RADICAL ISLAMIC JUDGES OF LATE AT A RATE OF ABOUT TWO A MONTH.

Until the West speaks up against this barbarism and demands that the Sudan,Saudi Arabia,and Iran and others comply with the United Nations declarations on universal human rights which include freedom of religion, and in the case of Sudan, comply with their own constitution the persecution of Christians including their executions will continue and accelerate. In Sudan one of the Christians on death row is a 27 year old medical doctor and mother of two imprisoned with her children.Her only "crime"is being a Christian. She is married to an American. Below is the plea from her husband's Congressional delegation to the Secretary of State of the United States after the U.S. legation in Khartoum indicated that they "didn't have time for this". Tomorrow we will print the Administration's public release on the situation. Shamefully it is far weaker than the official British response and weaker than the response of UK Muslims who have protested the death sentence of Dr. Ibrahim.

Recently we reprinted a letter from a Christian Bishop in the Sudan protesting the death sentence of Dr. Ibrahim where in he also noted an ongoing trail of an unnamed young man for "Apostasy" by being a Christian. We simply don't know what these barbaric judges are up to in the Sudan. We know about Miriam Ibrahim, imprisoned with her two children because of her American husband. How rapidly these judges are condemning Christians to the gallows is unknown and unknowable. But we fear it is far more common than what the international media reports. It is far more common than the occasional case that makes it through America's big media infotainment driven editorial processes. The United States sent soldiers to liberate the Muslim nation of Kuwait, protect Saudi Arabia, and to protect Muslims in Bosnia. Why can't we at least speak out forcefully for two children and the wife of an American citizen? .....of course our President has publicly stated that we are "not a Christian nation". So that means armies to the rescue of imperiled Muslims, billions in aid to Muslim Nations, but we "don't have time" to get involved with the murder by judicial process of Christians including families of American citizens?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Ben Wakana, 202-225-5456

WASHINGTON, DC - U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and U.S. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) today urged the U.S. State Department to use every means of leverage at its disposal to ensure the release of Meriam Yahya Ibrahim Ishag, a pregnant Sudanese woman who has been sentenced to 100 lashes and death by hanging for apostasy because she married a Christian man. Ms. Ibrahim is married to Daniel Wani, a man originally from Sudan with U.S. citizenship living in New Hampshire.

"Meriam is eight months pregnant and is being held in a women's prison in Sudan with her nearly two-year-old son.  She has done nothing wrong.  No man or woman anywhere should be sentenced to death by hanging for exercising the basic right of religious freedom," Shaheen and Shea-Porter wrote.

They continued, "Meriam Yahia Ibrahim Ishag and her toddler must be released immediately, and we urge the State Department to use every means of leverage at its disposal to ensure the release of this young woman and her son."

On May 15, Meriam Yahya Ibrahim Ishag was sentenced to be flogged for adultery and to be hanged for apostasy.

The Sudanese Interim Constitution of 2005 states that the government would respect the religious freedom of its people as a universal human right.

Full text of the letter to Secretary of State John Kerry is below.

+++

May 22, 2014

The Honorable John F. Kerry, Secretary of State
U.S. Department of State
2201 C Street NW
Washington, D.C. 20520

Dear Secretary Kerry,

We write to express our deep concern about the recent death sentence issued in Sudan for a pregnant 27-year old mother who is the wife of one of our New Hampshire constituents.  Meriam Yahia Ibrahim Ishag is a Sudanese woman married to Daniel Wani, a man originally from Sudan with U.S. citizenship living in New Hampshire.  Meriam, a Christian, was arrested in Sudan for violating Shari'ah marriage laws, and when she refused to renounce her Christian faith, was sentenced to death.  

Meriam is eight months pregnant and is being held in a women's prison in Sudan with her nearly two-year-old son.  She has done nothing wrong.  No man or woman anywhere should be sentenced to death by hanging for exercising the basic right of religious freedom.

As you work to address the many complex and global challenges facing the U.S. and the world, we must remember the critical importance of human rights and religious tolerance to international stability and our own national security.  The U.S. must remain committed to the promotion of human rights in our foreign policy.  

Meriam Yahia Ibrahim Ishag and her toddler must be released immediately, and we urge the State Department to use every means of leverage at its disposal to ensure the release of this young woman and her son.  

We also urge the State Department to continue its efforts to ensure that human rights and religious freedom are key components of our bilateral relations with Sudan and U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy at-large.

Thank you for your attention to this important matter.  

Sincerely,

Jeanne Shaheen             
U.S. Senator

Carol Shea-Porter
Member of Congress

Shortly we'll post the Administration's communication to Sudan....so weak its shocking.

THE GREAT NAMAZU CALLING THE ENGLISH SPEAKING WORLD, AGAIN

Diposting oleh giantara | 0 komentar | 20.06

EDITORS NOTE: HELP THE GREAT CATFISH GET THE WORD OUT, FORWARD TO A FRIEND.

A NAMAZU LAMENT

AUSTRALIA, CANADA, GREAT BRITAIN,NEW ZEALAND, BERMUDA, BELIZE, SOUTH AFRICA WHERE ARE YOU? THE GREAT CATFISH IS TRYING TO COMMUNICATE WITH YOU?

http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/

NAMAZU, GIANT JAPANESE CATFISH ,FORMER DEMIGOD, AND NOW MARITIME ANALYST FOR AMERICAN ADMIRALTY BOOKS

Ahoy non American English speaking bipeds! I've been trying to reach you! You have not been clicking into the blog. My mail apparently isn't reaching you and this hawk got my carrier pigeon.

http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/

So I'm sending this out into the world via our faithful readers and asking them to pass it on to every person they may know in a nation where English is an official language. Our most detailed statistics are in and despite my directly addressing all of the English speaking bipeds on matters of utmost communal naval and maritime importance and publishing this call once before; I can't help but notice that we still have 64 times more Russian readers than British. Thankfully we no longer go two weeks with no visitors from the English speaking nations other than the United States. It is vital that we chat. So again I'm asking my regular readers to please forward this to everyone you know in the English speaking nations.

WHO AM I, WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO HEAR FROM ME?
I am Namazu, a 3,000 year old giant catfish and former demigod formerly honored in Japan as being responsible for coastal earth quakes and tidal waves or tsunamis. Now, before you go dismissing me as some sort of pagan myth. I'd like you to keep in mind that the American Religious Right accused me of that when I first started employment with the American Admiralty Books (AAB) organization and its parent group American Admiralty Information Services (AAIS). As I pointed out to them in my defense of the reemployment rights of former demigods, I in fact, was not responsible for violent earth tremors or tsunamis. I'm merely a personification of those forces of nature and I didn't get to choose the job title of "demigod". I am in fact, a monotheist though not formally a Christian. As I pointed out in my defense of the reemployment rights of former demigods I am after all, a giant catfish, and as such not eligible for baptism; that being reserved for repentant bipeds like your selves. I now count among my regular readers quite a few members of the American Religious Right. After the Japanese outgrew any use for "demigods" I found myself for the first time in 3,000 years of existence unemployed. Like a lot of former celebrities I tried to cash in on my notoriety. I posed as a cover model for new wave rock album:

Namazu by Oh land

I made an appearance in my semi human apparition as a performance artist.

You can view it on YouTube at this link: Namazu Live Performance I appeared in an animated film, you may view the trailer here Namazu Video Trailer and I modeled for artist Eske Kath here is a sample of his work featuring yours truly:

http://www.eskekath.dk/

Not that the fine arts were new to me or I new to them as a subject. People had been fascinated with my images for thousands of years as illustrated by this ancient wood print.

http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/

But these occasional gigs weren't really very satisfying after 3,000 years as a demigod. I was depressed for a while then took a deep self assessment. I found that I'm 3,000 years old , now that's experienced. I live at the bottom of the Sea of Japan, pardon the pun but you've got to credit me with some depth. Really despite the pun, I've been to the heights worshiped as a demigod, to the depths working for a pittance as a model, that's pretty much the full gambit of work/economic experience for an intelligent life form. I really do have depth. I have always lived in the ocean, that makes 3,000 years of maritime specific experience. The other things I have done in my career have given me poise and confidence in my ability to communicate. After due consideration I determined that I should be a writer. So I assumed by fully human persona ( a very old Japanese man, I can not hold it together for very long, if it fails on me I look like my apparition on the album cover, human body , catfish head) and determined to set out seeking employment. Given my back ground I wanted to interview with maritime publishers. Given my appearance and potential for a sudden and uncontrolled change to catfish head mode

I knew I had to find a town that had maritime publishers and wouldn't blink an eye at a catfish headed person. I needed a port town open to strange sights. There was only one place to go:

Photo: "Balconies on Royal Street " by

Jan Kronsell GNU Free Documentation License

NEW ORLEANS!

And that's how I walked into the offices of American Admiralty Books one winter. It turned out it was a good thing that it was winter because the head honcho OG (short for Old Guy) and his wife ("She who would be obeyed") spend summers in Annapolis. I caught him in, we had an interview, there was a meeting of the minds and the rest is history. I'm now a senior maritime analyst and Dean of the Namazu School of Climatology helping the AAB pursue its mission of organizing and making available all of the maritime literature, technical and literary, all of the videos, all of the links to maritime information in the English language available to the entire English speaking world. And yet today, a year into the quest we have more Russians, Poles, Chinese, and French reading us in translation than British readers. I have been addressing "the English speaking bipeds" for over a year now on naval. coast guard, and merchant marine subjects, on national policies for the maritime sector, often speaking directly to Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Belize, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and South Africa. But in fact you haven't been reading my irreplaceable wisdom. I have been trying to tell you the truth about climate change and what should really be done about it. I've described how the English speaking world is being hemmed in by growing naval powers while English speaking naval power is shrinking, and what to do about it. I have described the common sense solution to so many maritime and watery issues, yet you , the non American English speaking world have not been tuned in.

English is the official international language of maritime transportation. Merchant Marine Officers all over the world are tested for minimum proficiency. Helm and engine orders by pilots to helmsmen across the globe are given in English. It wasn't the Americans who made English the world's standard language for maritime activities. It wasn't the Americans who established naval customs now observed all over the world, indeed the American Navy adopted British naval traditions. But if you are not tuned in they are about to organize it for retrieval without input from anywhere but America.

BRITS! AUSSIES! KIWIS! BAHAMANIANS, BELIZEANS! SOUTH AFRICANS!

IS THIS THE ONLY FLAG THAT WILL FLY OVER THE GREAT ON LINE LIBRARY OF THE MARITIME LITERATURE OF THE ENGLISH SPEAKING WORLD?
Waving Flag #3

Join the dialogue today, check in and use the Comment section to tell us what you think. Dare to read, think, and write. Check out :
AMERICAN ADMIRALTY BOOKS and start to plant these flags and others on the grounds of the World's growing on line library of English language maritime literature and information.

Shop Amazon Gift Cards. Any Occasion. No Expiration.

A BEASTIE BOOK SELECTION: WHAT FISH DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW

Diposting oleh giantara | 0 komentar | 19.56

BEASTIE MAKES HIS FIRST BOOK RECOMMENDATION

Beastie, Epic Fish Video Editor and Contributor to the FISHING Section

I'd like to thank Namazu for the warm welcome to the American Admiralty Books staff and Chief Editor Johnas Presbyter for his vote of confidence in retaining me after the demise of the ANGRY FISH CAM. As a non biped attempting to communicate with the biped world the accommodation by AAB of the hydrophones and the unique work at home rules are keeping with the best intentions of the growing body of American law intended to make employment more inclusive of those of us who are a bit different. Personally of course I'm a citizen of the World Ocean, but if I were a biped I'd want to be an American! I don't care what their enemies say about them, Americans are the most open minded, inclusive, fair, and friendly bipeds on the planet. I was very pleased to accept the offer by our editor in chief to pick a book from our expanding FISHING section to recommend. I have chosen

WHAT FISH DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW

http://www.amazon.com/What-Fish-Dont-Want-Know/dp/0071417141/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401828261&sr=1-1&keywords=WHAT+FISH+DON%27T+WANT+YOU+TO+KNOW_link&tracking_id=ameradmibook-

Here is an excerpt from the AAB review from our FISHING section:

"To me the ultimate "Insider" in fishing would be a large predatory fish. But then again a small bait fish would have a unique perspective as well. Unfortunately none of these real "insiders" are talking so you'll pretty much have to take the author's word for it when he tells you this book contains things that fish really don't want you to know."

Well, obviously things have changed in our Fishing section. At least one large predatory fish is talking in the first person. Having examined this volume I have to say that while the author had to rely on observations of fish behavior and then infer the things that we'd just as soon keep secret he hasn't strayed far from the mark. I have to endorse this selection as accurate while advocating that you confine use of the insights to the collection of the smaller species that we jointly pursue and show a little more respect for the man sized and larger species.

NEWS FLASH PHILIPPINE LAWYERS ONE, DRAGON ZERO

Diposting oleh giantara | 0 komentar | 10.48

The Permanent Court of Arbitration is one of several bodies that arbitrates cases related to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos). While China is a signatory, it says South China Sea disputes are exempted because of a 2006 declaration it made to the UN. However this international tribunal has given China six months to respond to legal claims by the Philippines regarding disputes between the countries over the South China Sea.
The Philippines back in March presented a 4,000-page �memorial� to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, asking the tribunal to invalidate the �nine-dash line� � a demarcation on Chinese maps that includes much of the South China Sea and suggests that China claims most of the waters.

China has refused to participate in the case. But the tribunal gave it until December 15 to file a response, citing an obligation to give �each party a full opportunity to be heard and to present its case�.

If China defaults by not showing up they have no legal leg to stand on in their outrageous territory grabbing behavior in the China Seas. If they do show up and argue, they will lose, but at least can argue that the point is undecided for while longer while continuing to use their Coast Guard like a blunt instrument. When either the Dragon fails to show up in court, or the gavel pounds out a final decision, China will unarguably be in the wrong in terms of international law. No nation in the region or using the waters of the region need listen to the Dragon's Coast Guard outside of China's own territorial waters, and to a more limited extent, within their UN recognized Chinese EEZ. Any enforcement action by the Dragon's coast guard outside of the confines of their own undisputed waters will be recognized as grossly illegal vice arguable. Any enforcement action out side of Chinese UNCLOS defined waters could be an act of war.

Of course the Dragon is a thug state and might well decide to continue with its unwelcome ways. If they do, eventually it will come to shooting and the Dragon is going to be surprised by the strength of its neighbors and their supporters. As we have predicted before it would spell regime change in Beijing. The Dragon's surest guarantee of access to the far Pacific is friendly relations with the Island states that surround the sea approaches to the Dragon Lair. Despite the vast size of their navy and now coast guard these fleets could literally be "fish in a barrel" to a combined naval effort. No one has any interest in invading the Dragon's mainland, the Communist won't be able to convince the populace for very long that there is any actual threat to them other than the economic ruin that China's naval adventures have brought them. We predict communist officials hung from lamp posts if the Dragon starts naval shooting and then tries to hold out for too long, not from invaders but from the Chinese people who have been anticipating increased prosperity that can only come from uninterrupted trade.

A loss at court by either trial or default however, gives the Dragon a face saving chance to reverse it disastrous naval policies. They can appear to be reluctantly complying with decided international law in slowly retreating from their forward positions in other peoples waters, and gradually reducing their over sized coast guard to the size they really need for maritime law enforcement, environmental protection, and search and rescue inside their actual lawfully recognized waters. We don't care to predict which way the Dragon will swim. We must however acknowledge the legal scholarship and skilled advocacy of the Philippine's lawyers. They may not have slayed the dragon at the door yet, but they have backed it to a wall. At the moment they deserve the international spot light and the thunderous applause of the global legal profession. This was one of the finest hours of the legal profession. With a luck, namely the application of common sense by the Dragon, this may prove to be the legal argument that stopped both territorial theft and a naval war. The next challenge for the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and others is, can their lawyers sort out the sea border issues between and among them, including the few legitimate contests with the dragon? What the region needs is peace and cooperative development of the ocean resources. This is best for everyone including the Dragon.

A SECOND CHRISTIAN NECK IS IN THE NOOSE IN SUDAN. THE RADICAL ISLAMIC JUDGES DO NOT INTEND TO OBEY THE SUDANESE CONSTITUTION UNTIL THEY HANG EVERY CHRISTIAN IN THE NATION

Diposting oleh giantara | 0 komentar | 21.01

A SECOND CHRISTIAN NECK IS IN THE NOOSE. READ PARAGRAPH 5 of the reprinted letter below. This young man will not receive the attention that Miriam has (so far with no result), has none of the press attention, and will probably be hanged quietly and quickly in violation of not only every principal of human rights but the specific Prohibition of the Constitution of the Sudan cited in this letter. He has no American connection. Every Christian in Sudan is in peril from these barbarians in judges robes. The rest of the government of Sudan seems afraid to enforce their own constitution against these murderous thugs.

12/18/2014 Editorial Note: We are sorry to report that after Mariam Yahya was finally released to Italian diplomats nothing more has been heard of this second known case. We have been unable to find any media coverage of this second Christian slated for hanging in the Sudan and fear that absent the global media coverage that saved Miriam from the noose this judicial murder may have been carried out. Unfortunately we also don't know just how many of these judicial murders are in the planning pipeline. The Sudanese Muslims apparently plan to rid their nation of Christians by the simple expedient of hanging them. The U.S. State Department could care less as relations with the Sudan continue as though normal.

Internal Province of the Episcopal Church of Sudan
Khartoum-Sudan

Press Statement

Re: Mariam Yahya Ibrahim and Death Sentence by Court in Sudan

Introduction:
On Thursday 15th. May 2014 in Haj-Yousif Court, Mariam Yahya was sentenced to death and 100 lashes for changing from being Muslim to Christian and for committing adultery because she is married to a Christian man.

Mariam Yahya Ibrahim Ishag was born from a Christian mother (Ethiopian Orthodox) and a Muslim father. Her father left them when she was age 6, and she was raised by her mother as a Christian. Mariam is married to a Sudanes / American Christian husband. Mariam was sentenced to death for converting to Christianity simply because her father was a Muslim. The fact is that Mariam has been a Christian since as she was brought up by her mother who has been a Christian. According to the report, Mariam, the husband and their son were all arrested because they had changed their religion, but then, the husband was released, Mariam is sentenced to death and 100 lashes for her adultery because she accepted to marry a Christian man. Their marriage is revoked. Now, Mariam and her son are in prison pending until she gives birth then she will be executed.

1. According to the above, Mariam has never been a Muslim since her birth. The fact that she was born from a Muslim father, this does not make her a Muslim in any way because she was brought up by her mother as a Christian.

2. The verdict reached by the court on Mariam is a clear and direct persecution on Christians and the Church in the Sudan.

3. The verdict on Mariam Yahya is a Human Right and Religious violation against Christians in the Sudan

4. This sentence is even against Sudan Constitution 2005 Article 38 on Freedom of Creed and Worship. "Every person shall have the right to the freedom of religious creed and worship, and to declare his/her religion or creed and manifest the same, by way of worship, education, practice or performance, subject to requirements of the law and public order, no person shall be coerced to adopt such faith, that he/she does
not voluntarily consent�.

5. There is again another court case going on right now in Kalakla, Khartoum of a young man who has been accused of being converting from Muslim to Christian according the Almeghar News Paper of today 21st May 2014. This young man may face the same fate
as Mariam did.

Episcopal Church of Sudan Internal Province hereby condemns this court decision and requests the Ministry of Justice to review the case of MariamYahya and release her immediately. She is free to believe in religion of her choice. Episcopal Church of Sudan also requests the authorities in Kalakla free the young man. The last judgment on the faith should be left to God alone. The spirit of dialogue, coexistence and love that the President of the Republic called upon should be upheld.

The Most Revd. Ezekiel Kondo
Archbishop-elect and
Bishop of Khartoum
21st May 2014

Email: ecs_bishop_khartoum@kastanet.org

YODA WHERE ARE YOU?

Diposting oleh giantara | 0 komentar | 18.31

AT FIRST GLANCE REPORTS OF A NEW "ALIEN EARTH STUDY" SUGGESTS OUR ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCES OF INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE WAS A GROSS UNDER ESTIMATE. WE DISAGREE.

SPACE AS AN OCEAN

LESSONS FROM THE AGE OF EUROPEAN MARINE EXPLORATION FOR THE SPACE AGE.

From the Book "PROTOCOLS" (c) 2012 by American Admiralty Books

YODA WHERE ARE YOU

What is the real likelihood that we'll meet intelligent life out there?

Editor's Note: We first published this essay as part of a serial E-book about a year ago. The entire book may be read in the "MARITIME LITERATURE SECTION" just scroll down past the book reviews. Recently the Huff Post Science Section published an article titled " 'ALIEN EARTH' STUDY SUGGESTS MILKY WAY GALAXY HOLDS 45 BILLION EARTH LIKE PLANETS". When we published the essay below our definition of "Earth Like" was quite different from the author of the above referenced article, Mike Wall who apparently first posted it on Space.com .

The planets the study refers to as "Earth Like" are simply somewhat near earth sized, with orbits around their sun that are roughly similar to Earth's. The study doesn't reveal anything about these planets rotation about their own axis or changing pole orientation which cause the day night and seasonal aspects of our own climate, nor do these studies indicate that any of these planets even have atmospheres. Most of these "new planets" are "estimated" planets meaning that they haven't actually been sighted but are estimated to exist based on a sampling of similar stars studied that had such planets. These "new earth like" planets are products of statistical analysis and subject to all of the errors inherent in statistical projection using small samples.

These "new" planets are not revolving around yellow suns like our own but around "Red Dwarf" stars with surface temperatures roughly in the 2,000 degree Fahrenheit range cooler than our sun. Obviously, there will be some differences in types of radiation coming off a red dwarf as well as the radiant heat difference. There is no mention of the presence of moons or large outer "guard planets" as exist in our solar system to reduce the frequency of impacts with meteors and comets, there can't be, these "new planets" are not observed but products of statistical analysis. Finally as we observed in our original analysis we exist on an outer radial arm of our spiral shaped galaxy, a uniquely comparatively tranquil place in the galaxy in terms of meteors, comets, asteroids, and other naturally occurring space objects that can and do impact planets. By contrast the inner parts of the galaxy are a much more violent place.

Even if evolution had more time there as the report suggests, it is the time between massively destructive events that count. One of these objects whacked the dinosaurs which gave mammals a shot at reaching the apex of the biomass, but we had enough time between celestial body bombardments to evolve. For that to happen in the center of the galaxy the "earth like planet", and by that we mean a lot more than just roughly size and orbit distance from its star; would have be positioned in a unique solar system with an extraordinary collection of "outer guard planets". When we published our estimate of the chances of another space traveling civilization in our galaxy we based it on a much closer definition of "Earth Like". We don't think this latest study and statistical projection change our estimate of the chances of industrial and space-faring civilizations at all. Though subject to all of the potential error inherent in small sample statistical analysis, the study does suggest that the probability of at least microscopic life is higher than previous estimates and possibly not confined to planets circling yellow suns at the thought to be, appropriate distance.

A link to this report on the latest estimate of "Earth Like" planets in our galaxy is posted below, just remember "Earth Like" has different meanings in different contexts. In this latest study it refers only to relative mass, composition, and distance from the star orbited. Below the link is a reprint of our original posting, and below the reprint of our original posting are extracts from this latest study with comments from the author of our posting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/06/alien-earth-milky-way-galaxy-earth-like-planets_n_2631063.html

YODA WHERE ARE YOU

What is the real likelihood that we'll meet intelligent life out there?

When European man first set out on the great voyages of exploration he expected to reach civilizations. He found both civilized and primitive tribal societies in abundance. Indeed the whole Earth while separated by what seemed like uncross-able seas, was in fact thickly peopled with diverse societies. Yet sea faring European man also found that much of the Earth was only thinly populated, in some cases so thinly as to be considered uninhabited. What are we likely to find in space?

Lets look at some probabilities in light of what some serious students of probability have said, based on the latest available information. For the purpose of simplicity, and keeping the discussion focused on the more immediate future, (the next couple of hundred years vice the next two thousand ) let's limit the discussion to our own galaxy. We shouldn't get beyond this area in the more or less immediate future. If there is going to be a first contact in the next two hundred years it will probably be with folks from our own galaxy.

In our galaxy which we call the "Milky Way". astrophysicist now estimate that we have about 135 billion stars. Presently most theories of stellar formation suggest that planetary systems around stars are common, perhaps the norm. We have certainly been discovering a lot of these planets of late now that we have a better idea of how to detect them from Earth or orbital observatories. Some of these planets have been found in constellations that sailors have navigated by for centuries. So lets follow the line of reasoning of Carl Sagan and some of the numbers provided by Isaac Asimov and Stephen H. Doyle and call the number of planetary systems something just a little shy of 135 billion. Lets assume that each of these planetary systems contains 6 to 12 planets. That gives us "billions and billions" (Carl Sagan) in fact , about a trillion "worlds" in the Milky Way. Now of these somewhat less than a trillion "worlds" some are circling stars much larger, smaller, colder, or hotter than ours. Some are circling twin stars and receiving radiations of sorts that we can only begin to imagine. Some have rotations that are too slow to regulate temperature decently for life, some are too near their stars, some too far. In short the vast majority aren't very Earth like. But near a trillion "worlds" is a lot of "worlds".So the law of probability makes it highly likely that some are indeed Earth like.

Stephen H. Dole and Issac Asmimov applied probability reasoning to the question in PLANETS FOR MAN (Random House 1964). and arrived at an estimate of as many as 640 million Earth like planets , at least in terms of having approximate mass, temperatures, orbit/rotation, chemistry and a sun like star to rotate about at approximate earth like orbital distance. This boils down to only one star out of every 210 has anything even similar to an Earth like planet. Only one planet out of every 4,000 is estimated to be Earth like. Now assuming 640 million Earth like, life generating planets in our galaxy, what does probability theory say about intelligent space faring life being out there? Asimov looked beyond Sagan's cataloging of "billions and billions" of "worlds" to try to estimate the actual probability of some space faring civilizations in our galaxy. Some of his reasoning can be found in
THE PLANET THAT WASN'T.(Double day and Company 1976). Let's follow some of Sagan's, Asimov's and Dole's math here.

As Asimov observed , on Earth life took about three billion years to evolve to its present state . Civilization has existed for about 10,000 years. So the ratio of uncivilized years to civilized is 300,000 to 1. So if we consider Earth to be about average, and consider that life started in different times in different places it should be safe to estimate that civilization exists on 1 out of every 300,000 of these Earth like Worlds at best. According to Carl Sagan' like line of reasoning that would give us an estimated 2, 150 civilizations in our galaxy ranging in technological development from pre-Roman like to far beyond modern day America. (Notice I wrote according to the Sagan line, Asimov injects some new considerations later on.) Now looking at industrial civilization we see Earth has had one for about 200 plus years out of 2,000 years of well documented civilized life. So of our galaxy's estimated 2,150 civilizations, a likely ratio of non or pre-industrial societies to industrial societies would be 50 to 1. That leaves us with an estimated 43 probable industrial worlds out there. Not all of them will be space faring yet. So lets estimate the space farers at 21 societies, figuring ourselves to be the median.

OK, so is it probable that 21 societies in our galaxy are capable of some type of space travel? It's possible, but hardly probable based on our current knowledge. Asimov's biggest dampener on Sagan's estimate is the fact most of these planets on which we based all of the above calculations on are located in the circular portion of our spiral shaped galaxy while we are located on an outer spiral arm. The circular portion is very violent in terms of meteors, asteroids, comets and similar things hitting the planets there. The closer to the middle of the galaxy the more violent the neighborhood. Evolution needs extensive time between cosmic bombardments to evolve intelligent life. So if we ignored this basic fact in calculating a probable 21 space-faring societies in our galaxy, our estimate is wildly optimistic. Considering the facts as we think we know them today, the fact that we are here is astounding. But then the galaxy is a really big place and we truly don't know all of the facts

The Milky way our home galaxy as it would appear if viewed from overhead

side view as prepared by NASA /COBE

Author's notes on recent new study:

FROM: Alien Earth Study Suggests Milky Way Holds 4.5 Billion Earth Like Planets by Mike Wall published in Space . Com 2/6/2012 and the Huff Post Science Section 2/7/2016

" Astronomers have calculated that 6 percent of the galaxy's 75 billion or so red dwarfs � stars smaller and dimmer than the Earth's own sun � probably host habitable, roughly Earth-size planets. That works out to at least 4.5 billion such "alien Earths," the closest of which might be found a mere dozen light-years away, researchers said."

AAB Note: This is a study of Red Dwarfs which are significantly different from our own sun, to start with their surface is thousands of degrees cooler. "Earth sized" is a long way from being "Earth like". We think it takes a leap of logic to assume similar sized planets circling very different types of stars in an optimum orbital zone are "alien earths".

"In the new study, Dressing and her colleagues re-analyzed the red dwarfs in Kepler's field of view and found that nearly all are smaller and cooler than previously thought.

This new information bears strongly on the search for Earth-like alien planets, since roughly 75 percent of the galaxy's 100 billion or so stars are red dwarfs."

AAB Note: Red Dwarfs are about 2,000 to 5,000 degrees F cooler on their surface than our yellow sun, this would indicate that planets orbiting such a star in the zone that Venus, earth, and Mars circle our sun would on average be cooler, the inhabitable zone might be closer in than we presently think. We don't know what types of solar radiation planets orbiting Red Dwarfs receive compared to the out put of our own yellow sun.

" The researchers determined that 95 Kepler exoplanet candidates orbit red dwarfs. Using this information and their newly calculated stellar (and planetary) profiles, the team calculated that about 60 percent of red dwarfs likely host worlds smaller than Neptune.

Dressing and her colleagues then determined that Kepler has spotted three roughly Earth-size exoplanet candidates in the habitable zones of their parent red dwarfs.

One of these worlds is Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) 1422.02. This candidate's newly calculated size is 90 percent that of Earth, and it circles its star every 20 days. If the planet (and these characteristics) are confirmed, KOI 1422.02 may be the first "alien Earth" ever discovered."

AAB Note: We have no doubt that (KOI) 1422.02 is roughly earth sized, or orbits its star every 20 days in the speculative "best zone", but confirming those two facts don't prove an earth twin. How long is its day night cycle, does it have an atmosphere, what is the composition of the atmosphere, what is the average surface temperature? Is it in an outer spiral of the galaxy or nearer the base of a spiral or the outer rim of the circular section?, Are there outer "guard planets", how violent in terms of cosmic collision objects is its neighborhood. Remember Earth shares the "life zone" with Venus and Mars but is nothing like those planets. Finding a pair or a few characteristics of a planet held in common with Earth is grounds to focus attention on studying that planet. It is a far cry from the discovery of an "alien earth.

ARE WE ALONE? As best as we can tell in terms of other space faring civilizations at the moment that is both possible and probable in terms of our home galaxy, not very probable when we consider all the other galaxies. Is non earth life out there? More probable than not at the microbe level its probably pretty wide spread; mammal like creatures we would only expect on earth like planets in the outer spiral arms and they would indeed be rare. As for non- space faring civilizations of intelligent beings any number between 43 and o would not surprise us. However if indeed there was even one space faring civilization that was significantly ahead of us many less than perfect worlds in the so called Goldilocks zones may have been colonized. In which case all we would remind our future readers that we were only doing an exercise in statistical analysis. Strictly as an exercise in statistical analysis we think our reasoning is very solid. Statistical analysis is a science, but as that famous merchant marine officer , Pilot Samuel Clemens (AKA "Mark Twain" said "...there are lies, damn lies, and statistics."