HERRING, FEEDS MULTITUDES OF HUMANS, CAN THE FISHERY BE MAINTAINED

THE GREAT NAMAZU EXAMINES SOME VERY SMALL BUT IMPORTANT FISH:

Photo USGS 

INTRODUCTORY TEXT: NOAA

"The Pacific herring is a coastal schooling species. They are found in large schools in depths from the surface to 1,300 feet (400 m). In addition to schooling, Pacific herring use counter shading for protection from predators. They are dark blue to olive on their backs shading to silver on their sides and belly, making them hard to see from above and below. They can reach 18 inches (46 cm) in length and weigh up to 1.2 pounds (550 g). Herring can live up to 19 years." Editor's note: Herring are vital to the near coastal ocean environments, to numerous coastal wildlife including eagles, bears, otters, sea birds, and larger fish. Herring also is widely consumed by humans both as a fish and its roe as caviar. The once superabundant herring is starting to show some signs of stress and so the Great Namazu wishes again to address his biped friends. Ladies and gentlemen .....the Great Namazu:


GREETINGS BIPEDS! For those of you who may not be familiar with me, my name is Namazu, the best known of a group of beings the Japanese people referred to as the Namazui. I was personally employed as a "demigod" supposedly in charge of coastal storms and tsunamis. I personally have never claimed to be anything other than simply a personification of certain forces of nature but during my tenure with the Japanese I was assigned, and did not choose the title of "demigod". When the Japanese turned to computer modeling for tidal and seismic forecasting I found myself unemployed for the first time in 3,000 years. That former title nearly cost me my first "civilian job" with American Admiralty Books when the American religious right objected to the employment of a "major pagan figure". However when I pointed out in print that I am in fact a monotheists but ineligible for Christian baptism due to being a giant catfish the objections were dropped and I now count many conservative Christians among my fans. Presently I am the senior maritime analyst for American Admiralty Books and Dean of the AAB's "Namazu School of Climatology" where we routinely examine issues of climate change, coastal zone management, coastal architecture and similar subjects. More infrequently I have addressed commercial fisheries issues. We have another fish writer "Beastie" a great white shark who shares the commercial fishing beat with me.


 My biped friends let me be straight with you for a moment. You eat fish and fish products. Beastie and I ; well, we eat fish, smaller fish to be sure but we eat fish. Mostly we have written to you in the past about biped depredations on man sized fish, a subject near and dear to our hearts. But today I find that recent developments require me to bring your attention to a small fish that bipeds and non bipeds share a great economic interest in, the humble little Pacific herring. There are some dangers becoming associated with the viability of this fishery and only you bipeds can actually take any kind of corrective action. So please read on as we continue to introduce you the Pacific herring and influence of this sturdy and utilitarian little fish on the world.

Namazu

Editor's Note to learn more about the Great Catfish click on either of these links: http://americanadmiraltybooks2.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_3.html

http://americanadmiraltybooks2.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_6.html





Continuing the background data from NOAA:

"Adult Pacific herring migrate inshore, entering estuaries to breed once per year, with timing varying by latitude. They do not feed from the start of this migration through spawning, a period of up to two weeks or so. The herring spawn in shallow areas along shorelines, between the subtidal and intertidal zones. Eggs are deposited on kelp, eelgrass (Zostera marina), and other available structures. After spawning, herring return to their summer feeding areas.

 It is generally thought that after hatching, herring larvae remain in near shore waters close to their spawning grounds where they feed and grow in the protective cover of shallow water habitats. After 2 to 3 months, the larvae metamorphose into juveniles. During the summer of their first year, these juveniles form schools in shallow bays, inlets and channels. These schools disappear in the fall and then move to deep water for the next 2 to 3 years.

Herring feed on phytoplankton and zooplankton in nutrient-rich waters associated with oceanic upwelling. Young feed mainly on crustaceans, but also eat decapod and mollusk larvae, whereas adults prey mainly on large crustaceans and small fishes. Although some mixing occurs, tagging studies show that Pacific herring stick together, remaining in the same school for years.


Habitat

Pacific herring occur in coastal areas of the Pacific Ocean from the surface to depths of 1,300 feet (400 m).



Pacific Herring Range Map
(click for larger view PDF)

Distribution

Pacific Herring have numerous populations throughout the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas.In the western North Pacific, they are found throughout the Western Bering Sea to Kamchatka, in the Sea of Okhotsk, around Hokkaido, Japan, and south and west to the Yellow Sea.In the eastern North Pacific Ocean, herring range from Baja California, Mexico, north to the Beaufort Sea, Alaska.Pacific herring are also found in the Russian Arctic from the Chukchi Sea to the White Sea." Source NOAA


This year (2015) for the second straight year the Canadian central government has moved to allow the taking of spawning herring by fishing net, despite objections by ichthyologists and First Nations people and even some commercial fishing groups. This dispute is part of a larger global debate over the management of some of the ocean's smallest individual fish that in schools form some of the most economically important commercial fisheries. These are the "Forage Fish"that form abundant schools creating easily exploitable sources of sea protein for predators and humans alike. Examples include but are not limited to sardines, smelt, anchovies, and herring. As abundant as these fish usually are modern fishing methods are capable of desiccating whole populations. These fish know no real national boundaries but are little addressed under present international migratory fishing treaties. Fish stocks such as tuna which are addressed under such treaties are subject to international inputs in global population and harvest management decisions annually and adjacent coastal states are given authority to enforce internationally recognized regulations. Presently most of the forage species are regulated by coastal state authorities as though they were local species.

The native peoples of the Pacific Northwest of both Canada and the United States are acutely aware of the broader environmental role of these forage species than their national fishery management authorities appear to be. Though clearly some within these fishery management administration sod clearly understand the larger environmental roles as this quote for a Canadian official study indicates:

"Ecologically essential Forage fishes are short-lived, highly productive, abundant, and are represented by only a few species in an ecosystem. Typically, their abundance varies considerably in time, influenced by environmental conditions and fishing. They play an important role in the ecosystem, being an essential link between planktonic production and higher trophic level predators. These species can be crucial as forage base for dependent predators, in determining the breeding success of marine birds and the condition and even reproductive capacity of mammals and fish predators (e.g. cod). Large decreases in the abundance of these species beyond normal fluctuations risk modifying the foodweb, changing energy pathways, in some cases, towards fewer species and ultimately to an alternate state from which it is difficult to recover." From: A review of the ecological role of forage fish and management strategies S. Gu�nette, G. Melvin, A. Bundy Science Branch, Maritimes Region Ocean and Ecosystem Sciences Division Fisheries and Oceans Canada


Scientists are starting to argue that too few governments take into account the essential role these forage fish play in marine systems before making critical catch quota and fishing methodology decisions. In other words the seasonal temporary economic health of local commercial fishing fleets are overshadowing sound biological reasoning in regulation. Herring, an energy-rich species that often swim close to shore and even far inland provide critical nutrition for sea birds to humpback whales, sea lions, sharks, larger fish, and even bears. Many commercial roe gatherers and some commercial fishermen join native peoples in decrying the use of certain types of nets and other "efficient" modern fishing techniques when it comes to harvesting a fair share of the forage species like herring for human consumption. Apparently for the last two years these voices of wisdom have been lost on Canada's regulators who instead of regulating the fishery for sustained yield appear to be treating commercial harvesting interests like "clients" or "customers" and are making decisions based on short term commercial fishing profits. This approach not only damages the fishery in the long term but eventually destroys the very customers the regulators are trying to please. The problem is not limited to the Canadian Pacific Coast. A description of the global nature of under regulation and over fishing of forage species was recently outlined in a NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC article:


"A Global Problem ( from a NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC article:)
In many places around the world, herring populations are quite healthy. Norwegian herring still support the globe's second largest fishing fleet.

But herring populations in other spots may be a mere fraction of what they once were. Archaeologists counting herring bones at 171 sites along North America's west coast recently found evidence they said suggested that the fish had been abundant for thousands of years. Modern herring stocks, on the other hand, swing wildly, and after a decline many don't roar back as fast or as high as they once did.

Herring populations outside Juneau, Alaska, crashed in 1982 and have never come back. Prince William Sound herring collapsed in 1993. Washington State's largest herring population has declined 90 percentsince 1973, and herring that used to live for ten years now rarely survive more than four.

These issues aren't limited to North American waters. Some Baltic Sea herring populations have fallen below their long-term average, and the fish are smaller and thinner than they used to be. North Sea herring are getting older as fewer young fish survive. One of Japan's largest herring populations has been too small to fish for several decades.


 Herring are a linchpin in the food chain," said Phil Levin, who oversees ecosystem sciences at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. But throughout much of the Pacific, "what you see over and over is a pretty dramatic decline�there's less herring, they're smaller, and the older, bigger herring seem to be gone."


Scientists recently have started cataloging potential consequences.


In 2011, researchers found that everywhere they looked�the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific, or the seas around Antarctica�seabirds declined whenever forage fish numbers plummeted.


Last fall, scientists determined that diving seabirds like Western grebes or common murres, which depend on herring and other forage fish, are 16 times more likely to be dwindling than are birds that also eat other fish.


"There's obviously something going on with herring, and it's not good," said Ignacio Vilchis, formerly with the University of California, Davis, who led the seabird research."




I, Namazu want to take this opportunity to caution all bipeds to go lightly on the harvesting of forage fish generally. You bipeds are apex predators and should act like it eating larger species ( but please not us intelligent man sized creatures) and leaving the forage species to do their job of feeding the larger commercial and game species that bipeds usually prefer to consume. Here is another way to think about it, avoid feeding too close to the base of the food chain. Some of the tree hugging / save the whales types a few years ago were suggesting that bipeds should learn to harvest and eat krill because of its super abundance and take the pressure off of some of the larger commercially harvested fish. OK Bipeds news flash! If you eat krill you are taking the food out of the mouths of the species you have evolved eating. Leave the forage species to the predators they evolved with. Bipeds, you're an apex predator. It would be best for all of us if you ate like it and stayed away from the primary basis of the oceans food chains.

I said it, I meant it, and I'm here to represent it!

NAMAZU

Read More..

CHINESE WANT TO ARM HAWAIIAN INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/hawaiian-independence-movement-attracts-chinese-interest/

THERE IS AN HAWAIIAN INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT AND THE DRAGON WOULD LIKE TO ARM IT.

Image: Public Domain

 There are several movements active in Hawaii interested in some sort of enhanced soverignity for the Islands, through and including complete independence and restoration of the old monarchy. None have been violent in the past. China, however, is openly threatening to arm such groups in retaliation for U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. On its face it seems a bit silly. The people of these various independence groups are U.S. citizens with second amendments rights. If they wanted to form armed groups each individual member has the right to own guns. So they could just go a local gun dealer, or sporting goods store and instantly become an armed advocate of Hawaiian Independence. They have freedom of association so even though they may all be gun owners, nothing prohibits them from forming groups, corporations, fraternities, NGOs, etc.. So really, for all we know, all of the groups are already armed and organized soverignity advocates. Why would they need the Chinese if they wanted to resort to arms? More over, if the goal is some form of enhanced island independence why have anything to do with the Chinese, who also assert that they own the Hawaiian Islands and threaten to sue the United States over island soverignity ?

 Really the Dragon asserts that the Middle Kingdom is the true sovereign over Hawaii !  We thought they were crazy trying to assert soverignity over the "First Island Chain " in the South China Sea which included islands clearly well within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. What we or the Philippines thought of their totally unfounded claims didn't provide so much as a speed bump in their attempts to take the islands. Their attempts at asserting soverignity over clearly held Philippine territory include flooding the area with Chinese "Coast Guard" vessels to enforce Chinese fishery laws, insure access of Chinese fishermen and exclude Philippine fishermen. That the Chinese would be sufficiently delusional to assert soverignity over a duly admitted state of the United States is actually not surprising. Certainly if they sued in an UN forum it would be a forum friendly to anyone other than the United States. The UN General Assembly is simply filled with nations that hate the United States. The Obama administration is a laughing stock everywhere in the world except the U.S. media, and is busy dismantling America's military might. So the Dragon is emboldened but not crazy, the Dragon realizes that the U.S. still packs a lot of sting and if an actual foreign force hit the beaches of an American State and were not immediately repelled the present President could be impeached in a heart beat and replaced with someone who would know how to mobilize the sleeping tiger that is the United States. So arming and egging on an Hawaiian independence movement seems to the Dragon a viable alternative to an invasion at this time.

 But again the Dragon miscalculates. The people who make up the Hawaiian independence movements are not stupid or poor students of history. They know what happens to cultures, civilizations, and nations that the Dragon covets. The leaders of the Hawaiian Independence movement want a better deal than they feel they've received so far out of U.S. statehood. They know about and don't want to be on the receiving end of the treatment that Tibet received. Chinese arming and directing any Hawaiian independence movement is highly unlikely. The movement is not made up of idiots looking to ruin their lives or swap what they view as an inadequate "deal" for the slave's chains of possession by the Dragon. However, the threat should be viewed as a clear indication of the convoluted thinking of the Chinese government and an example of how far that Dragon intends to swim. The Dragon is once again out for world conquest. So is Islam. So many global conquest plans just as the U.S. and the West are tiring of providing the planet with police services.  You can pick up more details in a recent Washington Free Beacon article by Bill Gertz. Hawaiian Independence Movement Attracts Chinese Interest

Read More..

Capt. Fanell on China, Retirement Speech

Navy Intel Officer Warns of Future China Conflict  http://freebeacon.com/national-security/navy-intel-officer-warns-of-future-china-conflict/

CAPT.FANELL ADDRESSES HIS RETIREMENT AUDIENCE ,PHOTO AND STORY BY BILL GERTZ in the Washington Free Beacon

 HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM? Capt. James E. Fanell USN (Ret.) knows. We recently carried the news of the retirement of senior naval intelligence officer Capt. James E. Fanell, USN and first introduced him to our readers in our post "Do You Read This Man's's Published Articles?"  . We think he is America's foremost expert on the rise, capabilities, and intentions of the Chinese naval establishment , a voice not always in sinc with the present mis-administration, and perhaps the one voice most worth hearing on China's naval establishment. We follow China's naval posturing and progress intently in our series of posts often subtitled "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM". Like us, Capt. Fanell sees a dragon that is swimming ever farther afield and growing ever stronger. But more so than us, he understands where the chinks in the Dragon's armor are and how the Dragon thinks. In short if anyone can discern the Dragon's INTENTIONS and any gaps between intentions and capabilities, he can. He will be sorely missed as an official voice to a tone deft administration. We, however are hopeful and somewhat confident that he will continue to be around in a second analytic career of some sort still publishing his analysis of the swimming dragon. We will be watching and reporting and linking you to where ever he may appear in print or electronic media. One place to look for past writings and probably for future analysis is in the NAVAL INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONAL'S QUARTERLY, an on line magazine @  NIP QUARTERLY ON LINE a suggested key word search entry might be "RED STAR RISING".

  The Washington Free Beacon sent a reporter , Bill Gertz to Capt. Fanell's retirement ceremony and his description of the ceremony , the impressive list of attendees, and Gertz's interpretation of the Captain's retirement speech is in the linked article. We however, had in attendance incognito Namazu's old pal Vic Socotra. Vic knows we like to get our Capt. Fanell analysis unadulterated by even relatively benign media commentary or editing. Fanell's China analysis, like Jack Daniels Black Label, or any good scotch should be taken "straight up".  So in addition to the links above to the Washington Free Beacon article we also provide a link to the actual text unadulterated, of Capt. Fanell's retirement address courtesy of a purloined copy from Namazu's intrepid buddy  Vic Socotra . Vic is another guy we recommend be on your daily reading list. You can find his blog THE DAILY SOCOTRA by simply clicking on Vic Socotra anywhere you see him in this text. HERE IS OUR INTERNAL LINK TO HIS COMPLETE RETIREMENT SPEECH TRANSCRIPT: CAPT. JAMES E. FANELL TRANSCRIPT

 http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/2014/02/do-you-read-this-mans-published-articles.html

 http://freebeacon.com/national-security/navy-intel-officer-warns-of-future-china-conflict/

� 

Read More..

MORE SKEPTICAL MAHAN

http://www.quickmeme.com/Skeptical-Mahan/?upcoming

NAVAL INTERESTS: SOME MONTHS AGO WE BROUGHT THIS SITE TO YOUR ATTENTION . BY WAY OF REINTRODUCTION BELOW IS A POST FROM THE SITE THAT CAUGHT OUR ATTENTION AND ANOTHER LINK FOR YOU:

SKEPTICAL MAHAN





Alfred Thyer Mahan was a naval officer who taught at the U.S. Naval Academy and was a founding father of the U.S. Naval Institute. He is considered the foremost authority on the concept of  sea power" and we often cite him when we are being critical of the ceaseless attacks on the U.S. domestic merchant fleet ( The Jones Act Fleet ), and our domestic ship yards, by Arizona Senator John McCain.  McCain is a U.S. Naval Academy graduate who undoubtedly studied Mahan at the Naval Academy and should know better than to constantly attack the Jones Act.  McCain has become such an enemy of U.S. controlled shipping between and among our own states that we often observe that he is to the American Merchant Marine what Jane Fonda was to his generation of naval aviators. The teachings of Alfred Thyer Mahan are falling into disfavor with the more "Progressive Democrats" who simply want to see the ruin of the United States, but this dislike includes some Republicans like McCain from land locked states. To solve the mystery of why congressional delegations from land locked states with no access to domestic shipping are so keen on the killing of domestic shipping with all of its defense and security benefits to the United States we suggest that investigative journalists follow the money.

 Of course the most obvious money involved is that which is not there. These states have no maritime industries and thus no constituency with any interest in maritime and naval matters. This is why these delegations are targeted by the disguised foreign interests intent on taking over our "cabotage" (coast wise and inland) trades with campaign money. Perhaps some of the recipients of these campaign funds aren't even aware of the foreign interests that are hidden behind the American incorporated "official" donors. There is one thing for sure in states like Arizona there is no numerically significant constituency interested in maritime issues. No one back home is monitoring how their representatives and senators are voting on naval / maritime issues. Historically members of both parties from these land locked states have held leading anti Jones Act positions. This is the atmosphere that attracts the enemies of U.S. domestic shipping to back certain Congressional members of land locked states.  Alfred Thyer Mahan would be appalled.

 At the SKEPTICAL MAHAN site you will see a number of captioned illustrations like the one above. You can scroll through them and even post your own suggested captioned. Its a fun way to look in on the current debate between an administration that has been heavily influencing the present naval officer corps by firing those flag officers who understand the teaching of Mahan and the surviving remnant trying to save not just the U.S. Navy but the larger base of U.S. "Sea Power".
While the Obama administration is busy trying to eliminate the influence of Mahan on U.S. naval professionals, that old dragon China has their hymnals open "Ode of Mahan" and are following the advice that made the U.S. the number one sea power in the world for over a century to a "T".

Mahan is never out of print or very expensive.

                

 And again, for a humorous introduction to the grand master of sea power go to: SKEPTICAL MAHAN

Read More..

ON THE PROBABILITY OF FINDING EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE BY 2040

http://www.cosmosup.com/will-we-find-extraterrestrial-life-in-2040/

SOME BELIEVE THAT WE WILL FIND CLEAR EVIDENCE OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE BY 2040

Ranger Space Craft, Image NASA

Here is a link to an article explaining this line of thought and our analysis based on our continuous monitoring of developments in the search for alien life as part of our series SPACE AS AN OCEAN (aka "PROTOCOLS").

Space Shuttle ATLANTIS, Image NASA

 According to a post recently published in CosmosUp.com:


               "Over a quarter century, astronomers will have already studied enough solar systems to have chances to detect electromagnetic signals produced by extraterrestrials, says a well-known specialist in the field." - See more at: http://www.cosmosup.com/will-we-find-extraterrestrial-life-in-2040/#sthash.Gmo3B3cl.dpuf or http://www.cosmosup.com/will-we-find-extraterrestrial-life-in-2040/ 

  The mention of electromagnetic fields in this post to us clearly indicates that the authors of the linkjed feature believe that in 25 years we will find evidence of intelligent non human life among the planets that we are able to sense and study remotely. This post at CosmosUp.com is clearly not focused on the probability of finding simple biological organisms of extra terrestrial origin in that same time frame. The fact is that we recently discovered sea plankton of earthly origin actually living exposed to space on the exterior of the International Space Station. SEE SEA PLANKTON IN SPACE:  There is some evidence of probable microorganisms that have survived some period in space riding meteors. So we don't doubt that life is probably much more common in the universe than previous thought and that there is a high probability that we will identify indisputable evidence of alien micro-organic life in the time frame of now to 2040. But intelligent life we see in a quite different light.

 Despite the rapidly growing list of "exoplanets" detectable beyond our solar system, what we have detected and continue to detect and study are comparatively "close in", as in the particularly quiet radial arm of the galaxy we inhabit. As we have noted before in prior posts on the subject of the search for other intelligent life, we don't think the middle of any galaxy is the likely home of civilizations. The centers of galaxies are very violent places. Even in a quiet radial arm similar to where earth resides we have been relatively protected from excessive mass extinctions events , though some have occurred. This kind of protection we think is necessary to the evolution of intelligent life and civilizations. We are protected by large outer "guard planets" that absorb much of the incoming space debris (comets, meteors ) at the outer reaches of our solar system. In closer we have a large moon orbiting our planet and its clearly observable cratered face tells us of numerous inbound objects the earth has avoided by the simple expedient of the objects striking the moon instead. We think that even with the relatively tranquil outer radial arms of the Milky Way Galaxy the conditions for the development of civilizations are rare. We do believe that the mathematical odds favor the existence of non earth bound civilizations when we consider the many galaxies in the known universe. But for reasons that we have previously explained we think the number of intelligent species much less advanced civilizations in any one galaxy are very few in number.We have yet to see anything that would change our previously expressed view . Below is an updated version of our previously published view on the subject.

LESSONS FROM THE AGE OF EUROPEAN MARINE EXPLORATION FOR THE SPACE AGE.

 From the Book "PROTOCOLS" (c) 2012 by American Admiralty Books

2/9/2013 YODA WHERE ARE YOU? AN AFTER THOUGHT

Space as an Ocean:

AT FIRST GLANCE REPORTS OF A NEW "ALIEN EARTH STUDY" SUGGESTS OUR ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCES OF INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE WAS A GROSS UNDER ESTIMATE.  WE DISAGREE. 

SPACE AS AN OCEAN

Hubble Space Telescope, Image:NASA

                                     

LESSONS FROM THE AGE OF EUROPEAN MARINE EXPLORATION FOR THE SPACE AGE.

 From the Book "PROTOCOLS" (c) 2012 by American Admiralty Books

YODA WHERE ARE YOU

    What is the real likelihood that we'll meet intelligent life out there?

Editor's Note: We first published this essay as part of a serial E-book about a year ago. The entire book may be read in the "MARITIME LITERATURE SECTION" just scroll down past the book reviews. Recently the Huff Post Science Section published an article titled " 'ALIEN  EARTH' STUDY SUGGESTS MILKY WAY GALAXY HOLDS 45 BILLION EARTH LIKE PLANETS".  When we published the essay below our definition of "Earth Like" was quite different from the author of the above referenced article, Mike Wall who apparently first posted it on Space.com . 

  The planets the study refers to as "Earth Like" are simply somewhat near earth sized, with orbits around their sun that are roughly similar to Earth's. The study doesn't reveal anything about these planets rotation about their own axis or changing pole orientation which cause the day night and seasonal aspects of our own climate, nor do these studies indicate that any of these planets even have atmospheres. Most of these "new planets" are "estimated" planets meaning that they haven't actually been sighted but are estimated to exist based on a sampling of similar stars studied that had such planets. These "new earth like" planets are products of statistical analysis and subject to all of the errors inherent in statistical projection using small samples. 

 These "new" planets are not revolving around yellow suns like our own but around "Red Dwarf" stars with surface temperatures roughly in the 2,000 degree Fahrenheit range cooler than our sun. Obviously, there will be some differences in types of radiation coming off a red dwarf as well as the radiant heat difference. There is no mention of the presence of moons or large outer "guard planets" as exist in our solar system to reduce the frequency of impacts with meteors and comets, there can't be, these "new planets" are not observed but products of statistical analysis. Finally as we observed in our original analysis we exist on an outer radial arm of our spiral shaped galaxy, a uniquely comparatively tranquil place in the galaxy in terms of meteors, comets, asteroids, and other naturally occurring space objects that can and do impact planets. By contrast the inner parts of the galaxy are a much more violent place. 

 Even if evolution had more time there as the report suggests, it is the time between massively destructive events that count. One of these objects whacked the dinosaurs which gave mammals a shot at reaching the apex of the biomass, but we had enough time between celestial body bombardments to evolve. For that to happen in the center of the galaxy the "earth like planet", and by that we mean a lot more than just roughly size and orbit distance from its star; would have be positioned in a unique solar system with an extraordinary collection of "outer guard planets". When we published our estimate of the chances of another space traveling civilization in our galaxy we based it on a much closer definition of "Earth Like". We don't think this latest study and statistical projection change our estimate of the chances of industrial and space-faring civilizations at all.  Though subject to all of the potential error inherent in small sample statistical analysis, the study does suggest that the probability of at least microscopic life is higher than previous estimates and possibly not confined to planets circling yellow suns at the thought to be, appropriate distance.  

 A link to this report on the latest estimate of "Earth Like" planets in our galaxy is posted below, just remember "Earth Like" has different meanings in different contexts. In this latest study it refers only to relative mass, composition, and distance from the star orbited. Below the link is a reprint of our original posting, and below the reprint of our original posting are extracts from this latest study with comments from the author of our posting.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/06/alien-earth-milky-way-galaxy-earth-like-planets_n_2631063.html

YODA WHERE ARE YOU

    What is the real likelihood that we'll meet intelligent life out there?

  When European man first set out on the great voyages of exploration he expected to reach civilizations. He found both civilized and primitive tribal societies in abundance. Indeed the whole Earth while separated by what seemed like uncross-able seas, was in fact thickly peopled with diverse societies. Yet sea faring European man also found that much of the Earth was only thinly populated, in some cases so thinly as to be considered uninhabited. What are we likely to find in space?

 Lets look at some probabilities in light of what some serious students of probability have said, based on the latest available information.  For the purpose of simplicity, and keeping the discussion focused on the more immediate future, (the next couple of hundred years vice the next two thousand ) let's limit the discussion to our own galaxy. We shouldn't get beyond this area in the more or less immediate future. If there is going to be a first contact in the next two hundred years it will probably be with folks from our own galaxy.

 In our galaxy which we call the "Milky Way". astrophysicist now estimate that we have about 135 billion stars.  Presently most theories of stellar formation suggest that planetary systems around stars are common, perhaps the norm. We have certainly been discovering a lot of these planets of late now that we have a better idea of how to detect them from Earth or orbital observatories. Some of these planets have been found in constellations that sailors have navigated by for centuries. So lets follow the line of reasoning of Carl Sagan and some of the numbers provided by Isaac Asimov and Stephen H. Doyle and call the number of planetary systems something just a little shy of 135 billion. Lets assume that each of these planetary systems contains 6 to 12 planets. That gives us "billions and billions" (Carl Sagan) in fact , about a trillion "worlds" in the Milky Way. Now of these somewhat less than a trillion "worlds" some are circling stars much larger, smaller, colder, or hotter than ours. Some are circling twin stars and receiving radiations of sorts that we can only begin to imagine. Some have rotations that are too slow to regulate temperature decently for life, some are too near their stars, some too far. In short the vast majority aren't very Earth like. But near a trillion "worlds" is a lot of "worlds".So the law of probability makes it highly likely that some are indeed Earth like.

 Stephen H. Dole and Issac Asmimov applied probability reasoning to the question in PLANETS FOR MAN (Random House 1964).  and arrived at an estimate of as many as 640 million Earth like planets , at least in terms of having approximate mass, temperatures, orbit/rotation, chemistry and a sun like star to rotate about at approximate earth like orbital distance. This boils down to only one star out of every 210 has anything even similar to an Earth like planet. Only one planet out of every 4,000 is estimated to be Earth like. Now assuming 640 million Earth like, life generating planets in our galaxy, what does probability theory say about intelligent space faring life being out there? Asimov looked beyond Sagan's cataloging of "billions and billions" of "worlds" to try to estimate the actual probability of some space faring civilizations in our galaxy. Some of his reasoning can be found in
THE PLANET THAT WASN'T.(Double day and Company 1976).  Let's follow some of Sagan's, Asimov's and Dole's math here.

 As Asimov observed , on Earth life took about three billion years to evolve to its present state . Civilization has existed for about 10,000 years. So the ratio of uncivilized years to civilized is 300,000 to 1. So if we consider Earth to be about average, and consider that life started in different times in different places it should be safe to estimate that civilization exists on 1 out of every 300,000 of these Earth like Worlds at best. According to Carl Sagan' like line of reasoning that would give us an estimated 2, 150 civilizations in our galaxy ranging in technological development from pre-Roman like to far beyond modern day America. (Notice I wrote according to the Sagan line, Asimov injects some new considerations later on.)  Now looking at industrial civilization we see Earth has had one for about 200 plus years out of 2,000 years of well documented civilized life. So of our galaxy's estimated 2,150 civilizations, a likely ratio of non or pre-industrial societies to industrial societies would be 50 to 1. That leaves us with an estimated 43 probable industrial worlds out there. Not all of them will be space faring yet. So lets estimate the space farers at 21 societies, figuring ourselves to be the median.


 OK, so is it probable that 21 societies in our galaxy are capable of some type of space travel? It's possible, but hardly probable based on our current knowledge. Asimov's biggest dampener on Sagan's estimate is the fact most of these planets on which we based all of the above calculations on are located in the circular portion of our spiral shaped galaxy while we are located on an outer spiral arm. The circular portion is very violent in terms of meteors, asteroids, comets and similar things hitting the planets there. The closer to the middle of the galaxy the more violent the neighborhood. Evolution needs extensive time between cosmic bombardments to evolve intelligent life. So if we ignored this basic fact in calculating a probable 21 space-faring societies in our galaxy, our estimate is wildly optimistic. Considering the facts as we think we know them today, the fact that we are here is astounding.  But then the galaxy is a really big place and we truly don't know all of the facts

The Milky way our home galaxy as it would appear if viewed from  overhead

 side view as prepared by NASA /COBE

   

Author's notes on recent new study:

FROM: Alien Earth Study Suggests Milky Way Holds 4.5 Billion Earth Like Planets   by Mike Wall published in Space . Com  2/6/2012 and the Huff Post Science Section 2/7/2016   

"  Astronomers have calculated that 6 percent of the galaxy's 75 billion or so red dwarfs � stars smaller and dimmer than the Earth's own sun � probably host habitable, roughly Earth-size planets. That works out to at least 4.5 billion such "alien Earths," the closest of which might be found a mere dozen light-years away, researchers said."   

AAB Note: This is a study of Red Dwarfs which are significantly different from our own sun, to start with their surface is thousands of degrees cooler. "Earth sized" is a long way from being "Earth like". We think it takes a leap of logic to assume similar sized planets circling very different types of stars in an optimum orbital zone are "alien earths".

"In the new study, Dressing and her colleagues re-analyzed the red dwarfs in Kepler's field of view and found that nearly all are smaller and cooler than previously thought.

This new information bears strongly on the search for Earth-like alien planets, since roughly 75 percent of the galaxy's 100 billion or so stars are red dwarfs."

AAB Note: Red Dwarfs are about 2,000  to 5,000 degrees F cooler on their surface than our yellow sun, this would indicate that planets orbiting such a star in the zone that Venus, earth, and Mars circle our sun would on average be cooler, the inhabitable zone might be closer in than we presently think. We don't know what types of solar radiation planets orbiting Red Dwarfs receive compared to the out put of our own yellow sun.

" The researchers determined that 95 Kepler exoplanet candidates orbit red dwarfs. Using this information and their newly calculated stellar (and planetary) profiles, the team calculated that about 60 percent of red dwarfs likely host worlds smaller than Neptune.

Dressing and her colleagues then determined that Kepler has spotted three roughly Earth-size exoplanet candidates in the habitable zones of their parent red dwarfs.

One of these worlds is Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) 1422.02. This candidate's newly calculated size is 90 percent that of Earth, and it circles its star every 20 days. If the planet (and these characteristics) are confirmed, KOI 1422.02 may be the first "alien Earth" ever discovered."

AAB Note: We have no doubt that (KOI) 1422.02 is roughly earth sized, or orbits its star every 20 days in the speculative "best zone", but confirming those two facts don't prove an earth twin. How long is its day night cycle, does it have an atmosphere, what is the composition of the atmosphere, what is the average surface temperature? Is it in an outer spiral of the galaxy or nearer the base of a spiral or the outer rim of the circular section?, Are there outer "guard planets", how violent in terms of cosmic collision objects is its neighborhood. Remember Earth shares the "life zone" with Venus and Mars but is nothing like those planets. Finding a pair or a few characteristics of a planet held in common with Earth is grounds to focus attention on studying that planet. It is a far cry from the discovery of an "alien earth. 

                                 

ARE WE ALONE? As best as we can tell in terms of other space faring civilizations at the moment that is both possible and probable in terms of our home galaxy, not very probable when we consider all the other galaxies. Is non earth life out there? More probable than not at the microbe level its probably pretty wide spread; mammal like creatures we would only expect on earth like planets in the outer spiral arms and they would indeed be rare. As for non- space faring civilizations of intelligent beings any number between 43 and o would not surprise us.  However if indeed there was even one space faring civilization that was significantly ahead of us many less than perfect worlds in the so called Goldilocks zones may have been colonized. In which case all we would remind our future readers that we were only doing an exercise in statistical analysis. Strictly as an exercise in statistical analysis we think our reasoning is very solid.  Statistical analysis is a science, but as that famous merchant marine officer , Pilot Samuel Clemens (AKA "Mark Twain") said "...there are lies, damn lies, and statistics." 

  http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/2014/08/sea-plankton-in-outer-space-really.html                                              

Join Amazon Prime - Star Trek Into Darkness Available on Amazon Prime Instant Video

Read More..

Submarine Forest, A Fossil Version Is Discovered Off The UK

10, 000 YEAR OLD SUBMERGED FOREST FOUND OFF OF UK BY RECREATIONAL DIVER

 Photo: National Park Service

 "Submarine Timber" sounds like a contradiction in terms to most people. However the old American Admiralty Bureau actually once worked a case for the State of Louisiana that involved "submarine timber rustling" . That case dealt with old growth bald cypress logs and stumps from old growth cypress swamp forests logged in the 19th century. Some of the logs were lost in trying to ferry them out of the swamps, eventually sank and were buried in the mud at the water's bottom. In the case we worked the timber was on the bottom of a water column that only existed seasonally. The land between the natural or man made levee and the water's edge during low river stages in Louisiana is known as the "batture". Before the U.S. Army Corps pf Engineers began planting willow forests to keep these lands from washing away during their annual period of submergence by higher river stages much of the batture was covered with old bald cypress. During the 19th century most of this old growth bald cypress was harvested. The batture is state property in Louisiana. Stumps that remained on the batture remained property of the state. Likewise old growth logs that fell from transport barges or otherwise found their way to batture lands are considered property of the state. 

 As time went by the old growth cypress often called "iron wood" due to it's weight, strength, and being  impervious to rot became more and more valued. A 50 year old bald cypress tree looks little different from a 600 year old tree but the character of the wood is not the same. Bald Cypress at what is now considered marketable age is little more durable or hard than pine. It can be stained to look like the older wood, and treated to prevent rot. But it is basically no more durable or strong than pine. A seller's market has emerged in salvaged cypress be it from an old building that was torn down, or a long submerged log or stump. As a revenue source the State of Louisiana licenses a few companies to prospect for and salvage such timber from the batture lands. When the state became aware that some small operators were salvaging cypress from the battures  unlicensed the American Admiralty Bureau's litigation intelligence section was contacted for assistance in obtaining evidence for prosecution of such unlicensed removals. Using commercially available satellite imagery the American Admiralty Bureau was able to observe a number of small towboat and barge units drag lining the submerged batture during high water. Thus the term "submarine timber" signaled to us a viable commercial resource.  Another common term to describe commercially viable submarine timber is sinker wood. When we first saw the linked to story related to this post we thought that someone had found such a resource off of Great Britain.  

 As it turns out what was discovered submerged wasn't logs or stumps of super durable timber lost one hundred years ago, but a drowned oak forest that was submerged by rising sea levels as the last ice age was ending 10,000 years ago. This was a forest of petrified wood , a stone forest. The submerged forest will probably be able to tell scientists a great deal about the earth's climate and vegetation during and at the end of the last ice age. No fortunes are to be had in salvaging this "Submarine timber", but thanks to this find by a recreational diver we bet that over the next few decades  a lot of money will be spent by researchers  combing this submarine forest for the secrets of climate science that it contains. 

 Click Here to read the story  of the UK Discovery: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/underwater-forest-dawn-watson-rob-spray-uk-norfolk-north-sea/1/416910.html

Read More..

Unearthed grave sheds light on Batavia shipwreck mass murder

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/unearthed-grave-sheds-light-on-batavia-shipwreck-mass-murder/6068008

The Amsterdam is a three-masted full-rigged VOC ship, launched in 1748, sunk in 1749; now a maritime museum in the port of Amsterdam. Photo Credit:/Gebruiker:Wolke GNU Free Documentation License

 On June 4, 1629 a Dutch merchant vessel veered off course and was grounded and eventually sunk off the Abrolhos Islands near Australia. During the early failed salvage attempt 180 people including "30 women and children" were ferried ashore to an uninhabited island while 70 plus men remained aboard working the damage control,and re-floating effort.

The survivors are believed to have landed on Beacon Island, which did not have the fresh water and food sources to sustain a population as large as was finally landed when all efforts to salvage the ship failed.

 Once it was clear that all could not survice for any serious;y protracted period on the salvaged provisions from the ship an expedition was launched in one of the ship's long boats to seek help. The ship's captain and a number of seamen set off in the long boat to see help from dutch authorities on Java. "Undermerchant" (similar to "Purser") Jeronimus Cornelisz assumed charge of the group left on Beacon Island. He began reducing the population by sending off survivors in search of fresh water on near by islands, trips he anticipated they would not survive. Later, his men followed the simple expedient of drowning others. He had women, children, the ill and infirm killed. He kept his cut throat crew loyal by keeping a number of women alive subject to repeated rape.

 Eventually there was the inevitable revolt and Cornelisz was captured by men he had sent to one of the near by islands. But when the Captain of the ship returned he viewed the non crew members as mutineers. He had the right hands of the direct "mutineers" chopped off, then constructed a gallows and hanged the lot. Some of the "lesser offenders were returned to Holland, while two men were marooned on the island as punishment.

It is interesting to note that this was a merchant vessel and the law exacted these horrific penalties was simply contract law. This is perhaps one of the worst examples of "governing like a business", this was government by a business the various East India Companies would repeat such episodes many times in the Far East. 

 Recent discovery of some of the bodies and artifacts from this episode of Australian history have recently been studies and an archaeological excavation is under way. You can read more about it and see photos at ABC NEWS : "Unearthed grave sheds light on Batavia shipwreck mass murder". Note that today the headline calls the event mass murder. When it happened it was regarded by the Dutch government as simply a properly settled labor dispute ( relative to crew) and customer dispute ( relative to passengers). 

Read More..