Greeting Bi Peds. Next year, 2015 the world will have a new "Climate Treaty". We first visited this evolving process in 2012. At that time we had not yet learned of the long pause in global temperature climb, the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature inversion, the growing ice packs. While we have always been a bit skeptical about the Al Gore School of climate change the article below reflects a more reserved attitude since we didn't have the facts then that we have now. We have continued to monitor the process of the new treaty and today we are convinced that it will be formed on assumptions no longer supportable by facts and will be a disaster. To give you an idea of why the coming treaty looks like a disaster, I decided to leave everything in the below post as it first appeared even though I didn't take issue with the Al Gore School as later facts revealed I should have. Right now it appears that the treaty is going forward on the assumption that the climate is warming, while we are clearly returning to the average temperatures seen in the 1945 -75 period which was viewed as exceptionally cold. In reality the global average temperature between the recent warming period and the colder 1945-75 period was only about a single degree fahrenheit. A lot of time money and effort has been wasted on this new global "climate treaty". We wish to caution our maritime business readers to avoid making any long term capital commitments based on an assumption of global warming. Arctic Ice Cover is thickening and will be for at least a decade or more probably two. While a "Global Climate Treaty" sounds authoritative, it is simply a political instrument that went through a political process as if science and incoming climatological data stood still. We suggest consulting professional meteorologists / climatologists not in the employ of the U.S. government, or UN bodies, before investing in projects that are based on long term climate assumptions.
OCEANOGRAPHY , Climate Change
The Namazu School Revisited
The United Nations Conference On Climate Change In Bonn
Not as Bad as It Could Have Been, But Not Good.
Previously on March 22, 2012 our guest blogger Vic Socotra introduced our readers to the mythological Japanese giant catfish named NAMAZU. The Namazu of legend was a mythological explanation for Tsunamis and coastal earth quakes , pictured as the results of the wiggling of the giant catfish named Namazu. Vic used NAMAZU as an entertaining vehicle for an exploration of the causes, effects, and record of severe, sudden, climate change. He described for us such climate game changers as sun spots, orbit wobble, axis rotation irregularities, volcanic activity, meteor strikes, and various combinations of such.The point of the original NAMAZU article was that catastrophic climate change has happened in the past with no warning signs and has overtaken life on earth with catastrophic results.
In our second installment in the Namazu series we noted that the present climate crisis comes with lots of warning that it is on going. Unlike orbit wobble, or volcanic activity, we in theory, could do something about it if global politics and economics could for once work in tandem for the planet's health. There appears to be little time but there does appear to be time. In our second article built on the original NAMAZU article, we asked the question of what if we actually dodged the present clearly visible on coming bullet? Isn't it a mathematical certainty that one day when we least expect it one of the previous causes of massive climate change such as orbit wobble, sun spots, volcanic activity, axis rotation irregularities, or some combination of similar elements will again strike us as in the past? Our considered scientific answer is yes there will one day in the future regardless of how we handle the present self imposed crisis occur a massive climate change about which we can do nothing in terms of prevention or mitigation.
We called that certainty the NAMAZU CERTAINTY. Around that certainty we launched what we called the NAMAZU SCHOOL. The "NAMAZU SCHOOL" is a school of thought that we intend to apply to discussion of climate change in this blog. The first principal of this school of thought is that the NAMAZU CERTAINTY is indeed a certainty and that real politics makes it unlikely that the world will be able to respond in an efficient global way to mitigate the agricultural, economic, biological, and human costs of such a global disaster.
So we feel the most important thing to discuss is how local, state /provincial, and national governments along with certain corporations and private citizens can prepare to mitigate the most deadly results of such a sudden shift in climate to reduce suffering among heavily urbanized human populations. We requested our readers to join in the discussion by submitting guest blogs and comments on real measures that real governments might take to insure adequate food supplies and other necessities for a protracted period in the years when most outdoor crops based on existing climate zones are lost. We haven't had much participation so far but recent news out of Bonn indicates to us that the NAMAZU SCHOOL is on the right track.
On May 25 Reuters reported that more than 180 countries agreed on a agenda for work on a new climate treaty by 2015. So after much discussion in Bonn 180 countries have finally agreed (after how many years?) to set an agenda for a possible new climate treaty by 2015. The headlines indicate that mistrust between blocks of nations remain a part of the on going debate. Last year in South Africa the United Nations conference on the climate agreed to a package of measures that would extend the 1977 Kyoto Protocol after it expires at the end of this year. At that time the conference agreed that a new legally binding accord to cut greenhouse gases should be inked by 2015 and go into effect by 2020. While trying to arrive at this future agreement the squabbling between nations continues. The European Union and others have accused China along with other developing nations of "procedural blocking" or trying to backtrack on the deal inked in Durban ,South Africa last year. Developing nations accuse the United States and the European Union and other "rich" nations of trying to avoid making deeper cuts and dodging increases in financial help to poorer nations to help them deal with climate change.
The science that all this is working against is this. Unless emissions of green house gases are cut enough to keep the rise in average global temperature to less than 2% Celsius over pre- industrial levels a threshold that scientist say is the minimum required to avert catastrophic effects will be exceeded. While we know this; some nations appear poised to miss their emissions reduction goals for 2020 and the world seems set on a course for a 3.5 degree Celsius rise in average global temperature before the century is out. { * Editor's note: Warming is now no longer in the shorter term Calculus ( as in next two decades since 2014 findings regarding solar flares and Atlantic Surface water temperature inversions. }
Hello? Did anyone really believe that the world "community" was going to solve this problem? That is not to say that the present situation is without hope. Politics aside, economics might cause us to eliminate the internal combustion engine as the primary engine of surface transport which all by itself might bring the needed reductions in green house gases. War or economic disaster might reduce human carbon consumption in time. But does anyone really believe that global politics or a global political process will actually avert disaster?
But suppose it does? Missing this train now rushing at us doesn't mean that another unforeseen climate change won't suddenly overwhelm us without any contribution to causation on our part. Remember orbit wobble, axis rotation, meteor strikes, volcanic activity can happen at any moment. Do we wait for the disaster to be upon us and expect the type of global political process that is now failing to do anything decisive about the on coming but relatively slow moving crisis to save us from starvation in the year following such an event? Will the global government community even be able to accept that these things happen and man is powerless to prevent them or will they lapse into a "blame game"? Now is the time to start looking at legal and technological regional and local solutions to post sudden climate change food security problems, flood control, drought relief. We don't need to wait on the global statesmen to wake up to the NAMAZU CERTAINTY.
We the people, you know us common expendable folk who won't have safe houses and stored food supplies that will sustain the heads of government and governing elites, need to start thinking along these lines and making technologically and economically feasible demands on our local and regional governments, then our national governments; and simply hope for the best beyond that and take a lesson from history, International cooperation does happen, but generally only slowly; too slowly to deal with a real global catastrophe. If the global governors can actually forestall the on coming man made crisis we can save whole species of wild life and whole regions of agricultural production. But we will not be able to do so with the faster climate changers that nature can and eventually will throw at us.
All we will be able to do in the face of the NAMAZU CERTAINTY is to try and save human urban populations from starvation by making a certain portion of our agricultural production not so weather dependent. We may be able to save a certain portion of the earth's wild species and most of a breding remnant of our domestic stocks. But what NAMAZU can throw at us over night is more than we can deal with in terms of saving the planet's existing environment and web of life. In past climate change events life changed and it survived. The human race has to make plans to join the rat and the cockroach among the sure fire survivors The report of the meager progress on the current crisis should serve as an inducement to enter the NAMAZU SCHOOL and start thinking and perhaps writing about the needed mitigation planning for the NAMAZU CERTAINTY..
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